While they cannot prove it, the moderation team believes it’s possible that Dream is running a modified game of some sort.ĭream, for his part, has tried fighting the accusations. Basically, the moderation getting one set of odds like the above is already unlikely, so having two extremely lucky outcomes like this puts the subsequent record-setting run even more into question. The mob drop rates that Dream had during his livestreams, meanwhile, come in at only 1 in 113 billion chances of occurring. Giving him some leeway and attempting to account for some bias, the team still ended up determining the chances are 1 in 82 billion for the barters shown during the run. “If nothing else, the drop rates from Dream’s streams are so exceptional that they ought to be analyzed for the sake of it, regardless of whether or not any one individual believes they happened legitimately,” the paper reads.Īnd what, exactly, are the odds? For the trades, there is only a 1 in 177 billion chance of getting as many successful trades as Dream did. They are so lucky that even compared to other lucky runs - which all top runs are, in some way - Dream’s odds are well above those of his contemporaries. But then the team went ahead and actually accounted for any potential bias, and even giving Dream the benefit of the doubt statistically speaking, the odds are, in their opinion, incredible. In the video report of the livestreams, the team concedes that a small data set may not bear out the actual chances of the results - just because you flip a coin 10 times, for example, does not mean you’ll get exactly 5 heads and 5 tails. In the handful of livestreams, Dream is shown successfully bartering for the key item 42 out of 262 times, whereas 211 of his overall mob kills dropped the second necessary item. The second item has slightly better odds, with a specific mob having a 50% chance of dropping said object after being killed. There is only a 5% chance that a Piglin might give you the specific thing you need to craft the item necessary to trigger Minecraft’s ending. ![]() The quickest way to get one of the items is to trade with Piglins, in-game creatures who will give you something random when you barter gold ingots. Without getting bogged down in the details, the gist is that in order to get to the end of Minecraft, you need two specific items. So, what’s so controversial here? The team took a series of six livestreams where Dream gets incredibly lucky in a way that many deem if not impossible, then at least extremely unlikely. “That’s just how the internet works though!” Dream did not respond to a request for comment. ![]() “Sad to see people jumping on the hate wagon before hearing any opposing view point,” he wrote on Twitter. On Twitter, Dream has said he’s taking the time to make a “quality” response to the video above, while also noting that specific smaller claims within the video are incorrect. Geosquared is a significant enough authority on the subject that he’s been featured by Mojang on the official Minecraft website.īefore we get into the specifics of what is being disputed, it’s important to note that Dream himself categorically denies all accusations. Geosquared, one of the moderators on the team, tells Polygon that the group is composed of volunteers who are studying mathematics and computer science, which might explain the thoroughness and format of the report. The paper is a whopping 29 pages long and includes a variety of graphs as well as concessions that take into account potential bias. It is meant as a primer on a much longer document, which is formatted as a research paper that breaks down all the high-level math the team did to verify Dream’s speedrun. In mid-December, the moderation team overseeing Minecraft records came together and published a 14-minute video that summarizes a two-month investigation involving a 5th place run submitted by Dream earlier in the year. ![]() Video game records are officiated by, which keeps tracks of the various categories and runners who vie for spots. But now, the very people who keep those records are contesting them. All of this attention and acclaim has sprouted from his wildly popular speedrun videos, where he competes against other Minecraft players to complete the game as quickly as possible, sometimes setting records while doing it. Dream is also number two on the list of overall top YouTube creators of the year. 2020 has been a tremendous year for Dream, a Minecraft personality who gained millions of followers so quickly that YouTube named him the number one breakout star of the year.
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